FOXBORO — By all accounts public and private, Mac Jones is right on track.
At the start of Thursday’s practice, he ran without limitation. He took under-center snaps with the starting offensive line. He dropped back and threw passes of all distances, always taking the first rep in positional drills.
Jones was exactly where he should be.
The 24-year-old is closing in on four weeks since he suffered a high ankle sprain against the Ravens, the typical recovery period for his injury. No surprise, Jones expects to be available for Monday night’s game against the Bears, per multiple reports.
According to ESPN, Jones has only “a final hurdle” to be cleared in practice this week. The Patriots held their first practice Thursday in full pads, with Jones showing the type of fluid mobility he hadn’t shown since before the injury. Prior to Thursday, Jones had been limited for six straight practices and traveled last weekend to Cleveland, where he was inactive for the Pats’ 38-15 win.
Fourth-round rookie Bailey Zappe has thrived in Jones’ absence, completing 72.9% of his passes for 596 yards, four touchdowns and an interception. Zappe saw his first action off the bench in Week 4 at Green Bay. He’s since started two games, both blowout wins. Pats coach Bill Belichick has declined to address Jones’ job status or health in recent weeks.
However, according to The Athletic, Zappe’s surprise performance has not inspired a quarterback controversy. Jones will start when fully healthy, and he was between 85 to 90% on Wednesday, per Pro Football Focus.
In the three games he’s played this season, Jones has gone 64-of-97 for 786 yards, two touchdowns and five interceptions. His last two picks were a function of miscommunication and circumstance, with DeVante Parker missing an audible that resulted in an end-zone pick against Baltimore and Jones later throwing a desperate bomb to help the Pats climb back from a two-possession deficit with less than two minutes left.
Chicago should offer a soft landing spot. The Bears’ rank dead last in quarterback knockdowns this season with seven. The advanced numbers are similarly unkind, with their pass rush ranking worst in the league at Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ offensive line has protected Zappe like a newborn the past few weeks, allowing pressure on fewer than 20% of his dropbacks versus the Lions and Browns.
Even if the Patriots U-turn, and opt to sideline Jones for another week, their offense figures to look similar with Zappe under center.
“I wouldn’t say two different plans,” Belichick said Wednesday when asked if the team will prepare separate plans for each quarterback.
The question now is whether the Patriots will integrate the elements that made Zappe successful when Jones returns.
To help their rookie quarterback, the Pats pivoted from the NFL’s lowest play-action rate from Week 1-3 to one of its highest over the past three games. According to PFF, more than 31% of Zappe’s dropbacks have been play-action passes. The positive effect of play-action, which has been amplified by the Patriots’ run-first play-calling, was most obvious on Zappe’s second touchdown pass at Cleveland. On third-and-short, Zappe found a wide-open Hunter Henry, who went untouched for his entire 31-yard catch-and-run to the end zone.
The Pats have also designed a shorter, safer passing game for Zappe, whose targets are just 6.7 yards downfield on average when the ball arrives. Whereas Jones, who worked out the kinks of the Patriots’ revised offense in real time over Weeks 1-3, chucked the ball to receivers who were more than 10 yards downfield on average; riskier throws that naturally led to more turnovers.
At least Jones should have the benefit of facing another porous run defense, as Zappe did. Like the Packers, Lions and Browns before them, the Bears rank in the bottom 10 by yards per carry allowed and Football Outsiders’ opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA. Those defenses offered the perfect springboard for the Patriots offense to find itself and snap out of an early-season skid.
Now it’s time for Jones to do the same.